In 2023, 26,4 million people were displaced by climate-related disasters. That number is more than those displaced by conflict. However, these people do not qualify as refugees or asylees. In the past 20 years, asylum applications in the U.S. have increased from less than 100,000 a year to more than 500,000 a year. A person’s need to work to support a family is not recognized.
Two aspects of climate change appear to be affecting immigration in significant ways. One is how climate change may affect people’s occupations; the other is how melting ice caps are causing sea levels to rise, which affects low lying islands and coastal areas.
In Central America, the valley between the two coastal mountain ranges has been productive farm land, but decreasing rainfall has made it impossible for farmers to successfully grow their crops. As a result, the men cannot provide for their families, which can sometimes lead to domestic violence. The outcome is that women are forced to flee the violence, and they take their children with them or leave them with relatives.
The growth in the drug trade puts families in the position of being victims of the drug cartels. Their sons are kidnapped to be foot soldiers for the drug cartel, and their daughters are forced to be sex slaves and housekeepers for the cartels.
The other issue is rising sea levels because of melting ice caps, which mainly impacts coastal areas and islands that are barely above sea level. There are several interesting programs that are being developed to address this issue.
One is a pilot labor-mobility programs between Australia and Tuvalu, an island north of Figi. It addresses the threat of rising sea levels in Tuvalu while easing labor demands in Australia. Australia committed $110 million to Tuvalu for various infrastructure projects, including coastal adaptation and telecommunication and established a special visa pathway that allows up to 280 Tuvaluans per year to live, work, and study in Australia.
The world needs workers to be trained in their country of origin so they can readily access jobs in host countries, send remittances back to their home country, and eventually bring their skills back home to encourage development there. Bangladesh has technical schools where “would be” migrants learn to fix a car or take care of children or elders. Germany has had an initiative since 2013 to train nurses in other countries and then recruit them to work in Germany to meet their shortage of healthcare workers. This program has created much-needed additional skilled workers in the country of origin.
A third aspect of climate change that affects the movement of people within the U.S. is the increase in wild fires, drought, hurricanes, and hotter temperatures with increased humidity. Aid organizations work with people who want to stay, people who want to leave, and people who are already on the move.
The people most affected by this type of climate change are the poor and the middle class. Aid organizations are helping people who have been displaced acquire green jobs, rebuild climate-resistant infrastructure such as water facilities and electricity, and gain access to services that they need.
Governments across the world have agreed to start a loss and damage fund to help low and middle income nations badly affected by climate change but contributed little in the way of emissions.
Because climate change will continue to impact immigration, governments need to invest in an approach that links immigration trends with labor market needs and development gaps. Local officials, community leaders and the private sector in destination countries must ensure that there are sufficient services to meet the needs of the migrant community and that migrants receive the support they need to successfully integrate in their host country. When migration is poorly managed, communities feel the tension. But when local officials receive the support and resources they need to manage immigration, they are often the first to express their support for newcomers.
Sources:
“Efforts to Manage Climate Migration Are Slowly Growing, but Their Focus Is Often Indirect,” by Lawrence Huang, March 1, 2023.
“Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration," by Abraham Lustgarten, September 15, 2023, in Pro Publica.
“Migration Can Work for All: A Plan for Replacing a Broken Global System,” by Amy Pope, January 7, 2025, Foreign Affairs.